The Subprime Panic*

Understanding the ongoing credit crisis or panic requires understanding the designs of a number of interlinked securities, special purpose vehicles, and derivatives, all related to subprime mortgages. I describe the relevant securities, derivatives, and vehicles to show: (1) how the chain of interlinked securities was sensitive to house prices; (2) how asymmetric information was created via complexity; (3) how the risk was spread in an opaque way; and (4) how trade in the ABX indices (linked to subprime bonds) allowed information to be aggregated and revealed. These details are at the heart of the origin of the Panic of 2007. The events of the panic are described.     

国际金融危机下中国风险投资的新变化

风风险投资是高新技术产业发展和经济增长的助推器,金融危机的爆发使风险投资业赖以生存的金融环境受到破坏,对风险投资行业的发展造成了较大影响.本文在论述金融危机对风险投资影响机制的基础上,着重分析了金融危机下中国风险投资业发生的新变化.     

Compliance with International Financial Reporting Standards and auditor choice: New evidence on the importance of the statutory audit

We examine the impact of auditor choice on IFRS compliance under the assumption of strict exogeneity of auditor choice. Our results reveal that compliance is positively related to auditor choice after controlling for firm size, profitability, leverage, degree of international diversification, and whether a firm has a U.S. listing or was audited according to International Standards of Auditing. We also find that auditor choice is positively related to firm compliance when controlling for unmeasured, firm-specific effects. The results of our study reinforce the importance of developing institutional mechanisms (e.g., enforcement, auditing, or corporate governance structures) to encourage compliance with IFRS.     

西方金融危机的深层透视及其启示

引起当前西方经济走向萧条的真正原因不是政策失误、监管疏忽和金融投机,不是次贷危机引起金融危机、金融危机引起经济危机。社会化的产品及其所包含的剩余价值为资本家个人所占有,决定了生产与消费脱节的可能和必然,决定了投资不足和投资需求由热到冷,触发生产过剩并引起经济危机。现代金融资本通过对利润的有力掠夺,进一步破坏消费市场,通过诱导过量生产、制造虚假繁荣,引领经济循环。只有建设社会主义经济方式、合理的微观企业制度基础和科学的金融体制才能避免金融危机、经济危机和停滞衰退。     

基于BP人工神经网络的上市公司财务危机预警研究

在激烈的市场竞争中,企业时刻都遭受着陷入财务危机的威胁。然而企业面对财务危机的威胁不是束手无策,而是可以提前预知的。本文在前人研究成果的基础上,对我国上市公司财务危机预警的理论和模型进行了研究和探讨。     

实证分析税率风险与我国经济增长

宏观税率是调节宏观经济的重要工具。我国的宏观税率因其政府收入的多层次性而产生了核算的差异;同时,因资料的可获得性又产生了名义税率和实际税率的差距。通过实证分析,充分地认识宏观税率对经济增长的作用和风险程度,可以有效地利用这一工具促进我国经济快速健康发展。     

Australian evidence on analysts' cash flow forecasts: issuance,accuracy and usefulness

This study examines the factors affecting the issuance, accuracy and usefulness of analysts' cash flow forecasts (CFFs) in Australia. Given the economic importance of the mining industry in Australia, we find that analysts are likely to provide CFFs for mining firms with poor financial health and high default risk. In contrast, analysts' provision of CFFs increases with the degree of financial health for non‐mining firms. The determinants of the issuance and accuracy of analysts' CFFs also differ in pre‐ and post‐IFRS adoption periods. Our results add new evidence on the effect of IFRS adoption on analysts' cash flow forecasting behaviours.     

去产能政策与融资租赁

本文对去产能政策和融资租赁之间的因果关系和内在机理进行了深入研究。基于2007—2016年中国上市公司的融资租赁交易数据的实证分析发现,去产能政策推动了融资租赁规模的扩张,而融资租赁规模的扩张又反过来削弱了去产能政策的效果,但程度有限。进一步分析表明,去产能政策从需求和供给两方面推动了融资租赁的扩张:去产能政策限制了产能过剩企业从银行等主流融资渠道获得长期资金的能力,这一方面激发了这些企业对融资租赁等融资方式的需求,另一方面也增强了银行通过融资租赁进行监管套利的动机。在党的十九大提出的“经济高质量发展”的背景下,本文发现有助于制定更加科学有效、与金融体系相互协调的产业政策。     

Does overcapacity prompt controlling shareholders to play a propping role for listed companies?

A major risk currently facing the Chinese economy is overcapacity, which affects the efficiency of social resource allocation (Xi et al., 2017; Huang et al., 2019). When a company is in crisis, the internal capital market often plays a propping role. This study approached this issue from the perspective of the controlling shareholder and examined whether controlling shareholders provide financial support to enterprises in industries with excess capacity. According to the data for China’s A-share listed companies from 2007 to 2019, companies in industries with excess capacity received more financial support from controlling shareholders compared with those in non-overcapacity industries. Analysis of the mechanism revealed that state-owned enterprises and companies with relatively poor financial status received more financial support from controlling shareholders. This study also examined the economic consequences of such support and found that it is conducive to enhancing enterprise value. This study enriches the literature on overcapacity and internal capital markets by demonstrating that internal capital markets play a propping role for companies facing industry-level crises. This finding has both theoretical value and practical implications related to supply-side reform and capacity reduction.     

CEO organizational identification and firm cash holdings

As the decision-makers and implementers of a firm’s financial strategy, executives play a critical role in cash holding activities, and their psychological characteristics have a major impact on cash holdings. This paper investigates the association between CEO organizational identification and firm cash holdings. The empirical results show that CEO organizational identification is negatively associated with firm cash holdings, and the negative association is more pronounced when the level of financial development is higher and economic uncertainty is lower. Further analysis reveals that the higher a CEO’s organizational identification, the higher the firm’s R&D investment and capital expenditure, and high CEO organizational identification can increase the value of firm cash holdings. Overall, our findings supplement the literature on organizational identification and cash holdings, and on the effect of executives’ psychological characteristics on corporate financial decision-making.